The construction sector is preparing to face a new economic cycle characterised by a significant downward correction, after the extraordinary three-year period driven by the Superbonus and the resumption of public works. This is what emerges from the 37th Economic and Forecast Report presented by CRESME on December 4 in Milan, which offers a snapshot of the scenario with regard to the reduction in investments: -4.2% in 2024, -6.2% in 2025 and 2% in 2026.

The sector most affected will be residential renovation, with an estimated drop of -16.9% in 2024, followed by further declines in the following two years. The reduction of tax bonuses by the government has had a heavy impact on this segment. However, the report highlights one piece of data that goes against the trend: the growth of public works, mainly thanks to the NRP, which will bring an increase of +13.7% in 2024 and +7.5% in 2025. 

Among public works, the drive comes not so much from traditional infrastructure (+10.7% in 2024), but from non-residential public buildings, with a significant increase driven by the construction of schools, public buildings, and healthcare facilities (+21.5% in 2024). 

A European perspective 

The CRESME Report, combined this year with the winter session of Euroconstruct (an organisation that brings together study centres from 27 European countries), reveals that the European market will also suffer in 2024, with an estimated drop of -2.4%. The most affected countries include France (-4.6%), Sweden (-5.3%) and Finland (-5.4%), whereas Spain (+ 2%), Portugal (+ 1.5%) and Ireland (+ 1.4%) record a positive trend. 

A strategic partner for MADE Expo 2025

CRESME, a partner of MIBA (Building Alliance, of which MADE Expo is a part), provides a key tool for navigating a rapidly evolving market. With the focus on “Public works markets facing the construction challenge”, the 2024 report provides detailed analyses and forecasts that will be useful to professionals, companies and operators for tackling the challenges of the sector. 

The growth of public works and the impact of the NRP are, in fact, confirmed as a key opportunity for the relaunch of the sector, in Italy and in Europe. The CRESME Report will be an indispensable compass for all those who want to prepare for the future of construction.